PROGNOSIS OF THE GROWTH AND PRODUCTION OF PARICÁ STANDS, IN THE EASTERN AMAZON
Modeling; Growth and yield; Biological models
Paricá is a very promising pioneer tropical species for the laminated wood industry, as it has fast growth and high durability. Therefore, studies to understand and predict the growth of this species are important to identify the best management alternatives, as well as to meet the demands for wood, and to supply raw material to the market. The present research project aims to predict the volume and technical rotation based on modeling at the total population level (TMP) in the Eastern Amazon. The plantations targeted by the study occupy an area of 123.5 hectares distributed in four plots. Data from the continuous forest inventory of 13 permanent plots will be used, with the following measurements: diameter at breast height (dbh - cm, at 1.30 m from the ground), total height of trees and rigorous cubage data of 104 trees by the method of Smalian. Before modeling at the total stand level, models will be selected to estimate the height and volume of individual trees, as well as the height growth of the dominant paricá trees, which are important for classifying the productive capacity of the site. The prognosis of the basal area (m²/ha) and volume (m³/ha) will be made from the Clutter variable density model, which will be modified by the addition of mortality as an independent variable, as it is an important component of growth in forest stands , caused by increased competition between trees and limiting growth factors. The selected models will be validated via Student's t test for normally distributed residuals or Chi-square test for non-normally distributed residuals. The definition of the technical rotation age will be defined when the curves of current annual increment (CAI) and average annual increment (MAI) for wood volume, intersect. The selected models are expected to ensure accurate, consistent and trend-free estimates.