Global Models for Predicting Forest Growth under Management in the Brazilian Amazon
Permanent Plots; Population Models; Volumetrics.
The Amazon holds vast potential for forest management. Scientific research plays a crucial role in overcoming challenges associated with conducting management activities in the region, enhancing the capacity for effective management and control. Forest managers need to gather information about forest dynamics to determine harvesting cycles, minimizing impact and aligning with the vegetation's growth rate. Permanent plots are the most effective tool for assessing dynamics and measuring forest growth, providing vital information to detect growth patterns in specific forest areas. Each area is subject to unique characteristics, resulting in a specific growth rate. Therefore, understanding or estimating forest growth rates is essential for effective management. Population models (or global models) emerge as an alternative for volume forecasting, considering forest dynamics based on dendrometric attributes of vegetation as predictor variables, aiming to estimate volumetrics in respective areas. This study aims to identify the average dendrometric variables of a forest area with the greatest capacity to describe volume growth per unit area. Additionally, it seeks to estimate the volumetric recovery time of the area after forest management in the Amazon region and compare it with the stipulated cutting cycle. The study's forest area information was obtained from Management Unit 3 of Caxiuanã National Forest. Continuous forest inventory measurements were conducted on trees with Diameter at Breast Height from 10 cm, totaling a sample of 66 measurements and remeasurements in permanent plots. Preliminary results, based on Pearson correlation coefficients, indicate a stronger relationship between the area's volume and variables obtained through the cross-sectional area of trees, such as basal area and mean quadratic diameter.