Bryophytes, Frullaniaceae, Conservation, Distribution Modeling

Frullania is a genus of liverworts with species distributed worldwide. Generally, they are leafy plants with many branches, occurring in tufts or forming dark patches on tree trunks. In Brazil, the genus is found in nearly all states, represented by 39 species organized into eight subgenera. The widespread distribution of Frullania species across various regions of Brazil demonstrates their adaptation to different environments. It is one of the most complex genera in the order Porellales, exhibiting significant variations at both the species and subgeneric levels. These complexities lead to disagreements regarding morphology, systematic status, and distribution, raising questions such as: What environmental variables shape the distribution patterns of Frullania in Brazil? How will Frullania species be distributed under different scenarios considering climate change? How can we identify new potential areas for the distribution of rare Frullania species? The study aims to understand the geographic distribution of these species under various scenarios for Brazil and assess the risks that climate and landscape changes pose to their conservation. To achieve these objectives, the thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter presents the predicted geographic distribution based on species distribution models, highlighting areas of greatest richness and endemism. The second chapter compares current and future distribution models for the genus, identifying key areas for conservation. The third chapter aims to test distribution models and formulate predictive occurrence scenarios for rare species.