Selection of species for restoration in Itacaiúnas river basin in climate change scenarios

Climate change. Distribution modeling. Forest restoration. Tree species

The selection of species for forest restoration is a complex process of fundamental importance for forest restoration success. There are several criteria for species selection, among them are whether the species is native, the influence of local abiotic conditions and economic importance to the local population. However, there are insufficient studies on the assessment of species tolerance to climatic events that may occur in climate change scenarios, which may affect the species selection process. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the selection of species for forest restoration in the Itacaiúnas River basin region, using distribution models and future climate scenarios. The first chapter of the dissertation sought to build distribution models of tree species that occur in the Itacaiúnas river basin to understand the floristic composition of the region and provide subsidy for the selection of species for forest restoration. In the second chapter, geographic distribution models of tree species were evaluated for future climate scenarios to investigate the effects of climate change on the flora of the Itacaiúnas river basin. Focus was given to analyzing the potential resilience of species used in restoration projects and with importance for human use. From the number of modeled initial species, 457 obtained valid models for the study area. Of these, 214 species are used in forest restoration projects, 196 are of economic interest. Taking into account climate change and the risk of extinction, 162 species will be more resilient and could be used in forest restoration projects for the basin region.