The impact of artificial water reduction on mortality and tree recruitment in a firm forest in eastern Brazilian Amazon
climate change, vegetation dynamics and biodiversity loss
The Amazon plays an important role in maintaining ecosystem services and protecting the planet's biodiversity. However, deforestation in the Amazon has caused serious damage to biodiversity. The loss of forest cover also alters the hydrological regime, impairing the transport of moisture to the atmosphere, which can result in a reduction or interruption of the rainy season. One of the main consequences of deforestation, both for the climate and for biodiversity, is documented by the climatic anomalies called El Niño, which reduces the amount of rainfall in the Amazon. This anomaly has become more frequent and intense with changes in greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and changes in land cover use due to deforestation. Climate models have predicted that the decrease in rainfall in the Amazon could transform it into another type of vegetation with lower biomass and biodiversity. To document this phenomenon, the Seca Floresta Project (ESECAFLOR) was created in 2002 in the eastern Brazilian Amazon, with the main objective of collecting and analyzing physical and biotic data in a controlled experiment of water reduction. The ESECAFLOR Project offers the unique possibility of research on monitoring the long-term responses of a tropical rainforest, subjected to an artificially induced soil moisture reduction condition. The structure of the project is composed of two plots of one hectare, one denominated control and the other for exclusion of water called experimental. The experimental plot is covered by 6,000 plastic panels, installed at an average height ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 meters above the ground, resulting in a water stress in the plot, reducing precipitation by 50%. The objective of this dissertation is to compare the mortality, recruitment, biomass and growth rates of trees between the control and the experimental plots (water exclusion plot) in the period from 2005 to 2017. Preliminary results already demonstrate a loss of biomass in the experimental plot compared to the control plot, due to higher tree mortality, especially those with the largest diameters. In addition, the number of individuals and species of tree recruitment are smaller in the experimental plot compared to the control. In conclusion, the preliminary results of this dissertation are corroborating the predictions of climate models for the Amazon, where the reduction in precipitation is causing the forest to lose biomass and also plant species.