Banca de DEFESA: VANDEILSON BELFORT MOURA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : VANDEILSON BELFORT MOURA
DATE: 18/02/2025
TIME: 08:00
LOCAL: sala virtual
TITLE:

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL MONITORING AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF QUARANTINE PESTS IN FRUIT TREES IN TROPICAL AMERICA

KEY WORDS:

citrus black spot; carambola fruit fly; cocoa moniliasis; food security; phytosanitary defense; climate variability

PAGES: 125
BIG AREA: Ciências Agrárias
AREA: Agronomia
SUBÁREA: Agrometeorologia
SUMMARY:

Quarantine pests, such as citrus black spot (Phyllosticta citricarpa Van der Aa), carambola fruit fly (Bactrocera carambolae Drew & Hancock), and cacao frosty pod rot (Moniliophthora roreri), pose serious threats to fruit production in the Amazon due to phytosanitary restrictions imposed on the commercialization of fruits from affected territories. This thesis, composed of four chapters, focused on: 1) Conducting an analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the occurrence of these pests under field conditions; 2) Analyzing their interaction with hosts under current climatic conditions; 3) Evaluating the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures employed by official control programs to eradicate outbreaks; 4) Modeling the potential bioclimatic suitability of frosty pod rot under present climate and climate change scenarios; 5) Identifying invasion risk pathways for these threats in Pará as a mechanism for managing phytosanitary defense in the state. Phytosanitary surveys were conducted in commercial and domestic host plantations, recording presence and absence data. Quantitative tools, geographic information systems, and machine learning were utilized to analyze phytosanitary risks and understand interactions within the pathosystems. From the occurrence data, the analyses revealed that citrus black spot had a total incidence of 6.5% in plants, with an aggregated pattern, spatial dependency explained by a Gaussian model, and disease reach ranging from 25.5 to 103 meters in domestic and commercial plantations. The total prevalence of citrus black spot in properties was 5.5%, with a random spatial pattern in old plantations with a low number of hosts and a range of 20.3 km. Seasonality caused symptoms ranging from hard spot to virulent spot, with conidia leading to higher prevalence and incidence during the less rainy period. The carambola fruit fly showed higher incidence in Jackson traps installed in starfruit and mango trees, influenced by relative humidity, global radiation, collected fruits, and rainfall. The less rainy period favored the population abundance of B. carambolae, with low spatial dependency and a movement radius of 3.3 km. Continuous monitoring through trapping, fruit collection and destruction, and the use of food and sex attractants eradicated the insect, maintaining the pest under control with a maximum fly/trap/day index of 0.54. The potential distribution model of M. roreri suggests high bioclimatic potential in all mesoregions of Pará, with high invasion risk in Juruti, Terra Santa, Oriximiná, and Jacareacanga. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in favorability for M. roreri is expected in Pará’s cacao-producing regions, especially under the SSP5-8.5 pathway of higher warming. The Transamazon region is projected to experience the greatest losses in bioclimatic suitability, while Marajó, Lower Amazon, and Southeast Pará are expected to exhibit greater resilience. Spatiotemporal mapping of quarantine pests in favorable environments and the identification of areas at invasion risk and active transit routes for contaminated material are crucial for developing effective control and management strategies to ensure the health of production areas, maintain competitiveness, and minimize vulnerabilities. These results are of significant public interest, contributing substantially to the understanding of pest epidemiology under field conditions and informing decision-making in phytosanitary management, thereby supporting the sustainable development of tropical fruit production.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1356961 - PAULO JORGE DE OLIVEIRA PONTE DE SOUZA
Interna - 3266519 - TELMA FATIMA VIEIRA BATISTA
Externo à Instituição - JOSÉ VICTOR TORRES ALVES COSTA
Externo à Instituição - LUCIANO JORGE SEREJO DOS ANJOS - UFPA
Externo à Instituição - MIGUEL ALVES JÚNIOR - UFPA