Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: VANDEILSON BELFORT MOURA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : VANDEILSON BELFORT MOURA
DATE: 23/08/2024
TIME: 08:00
LOCAL: sala virtual
TITLE:

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL MONITORING AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF QUARANTINE PESTS IN FRUIT TREES IN TROPICAL AMERICA

KEY WORDS:

citrus black spot; carambola fruit fly; cocoa moniliasis; food security; phytosanitary defense; climate variability.

PAGES: 54
BIG AREA: Ciências Agrárias
AREA: Agronomia
SUBÁREA: Agrometeorologia
SUMMARY:

Quarantine pests such as citrus black spot, carambola fruit fly, and cacao moniliasis pose serious threats to fruit production in the Amazon due to the phytosanitary restrictions imposed on the commercialization of fruits from affected areas. This thesis, composed of four chapters, focused on analyzing the monitoring of the spatiotemporal dynamics of these pests under field conditions, their interaction with hosts under current climatic conditions, evaluating the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures used by official control to eradicate outbreaks, modeling the potential bioclimatic suitability of moniliasis under present and climate change scenarios, and identifying invasion risk routes of these threats in the state of Pará as a mechanism for phytosanitary defense management. Phytosanitary surveys were conducted in commercial and domestic plantings of host plants, recording both presence and absence of the pests analyzed. Quantitative tools, geographic information systems, and machine learning were used to analyze phytosanitary risks and understand interactions within the pathosystems. From the occurrences, analyses revealed that citrus black spot had a total incidence in plants of 6.5%, with an aggregated pattern, spatial dependence explained by the Gaussian model with a disease range of 25.5 to 103 meters in domestic and commercial plantings. The total prevalence of citrus black spot on properties was 5.5%, with a random spatial pattern in old plantings with a low number of hosts and a range of 20.3 km. Seasonality caused symptoms ranging from hard spot to virulent spot caused by conidia, with higher prevalence and incidence during the less rainy period. The carambola fruit fly had higher incidence in Jackson traps installed in carambola and mango trees, influenced by relative humidity, global radiation, collected fruits, and rainfall. The less rainy period favored the population abundance of B. carambolae with low spatial dependence and a movement radius of 3.3 km, where continuous monitoring through trapping, fruit collection and destruction, and food and sex attractants eradicated the insect with a maximum MAD of 0.54, keeping the pest under official control. The potential distribution model of M. roreri suggests high bioclimatic potential in all mesoregions of Pará, with high invasion risk in Juruti, Terra Santa, Oriximiná, and Jacareacanga. Climate change is expected to reduce favorability for M. roreri in cacao-producing regions of Pará, especially along the SSP5-8.5 pathway of greater warming. The Transamazonian region will suffer the most losses in bioclimatic suitability, with greater resilience suggested in Marajó, Lower Amazon, and Southeast Pará. The spatiotemporal mapping of quarantine pests in favorable environments and the identification of areas at risk of invasion and active routes of contaminated material transit are crucial for developing effective control and management strategies to ensure the health of production areas, their competitiveness, and to minimize vulnerabilities. These results are of significant public interest as they contribute greatly to understanding the epidemiology of pests under field conditions and to decision-making in phytosanitary management, thus contributing to the sustainable development of tropical fruit farming."

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1356961 - PAULO JORGE DE OLIVEIRA PONTE DE SOUZA
Externo à Instituição - LUCIANO JORGE SEREJO DOS ANJOS - UFPA
Externo à Instituição - MIGUEL ALVES JÚNIOR - UFPA
Externo à Instituição - RICARDO ADAIME DA SILVA - EMBRAPA